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Why the Arab Revolution May Not Apply to Nigeria
By Nwokedi Nworisara | African Examiner | Posted: Mar 03, 2011
By Nwokedi Nworisara | African Examiner | Posted: Mar 03, 2011
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Like I have pointed out to opposition groups to the ruling party in
Nigeria, the fact that mass protests succeeded in changing governments
in North Africa (Maghreb) does not mean that it will work here in
Nigeria. This increasing reference to the Arab revolution drawing
parallels with Nigeria has emboldened the opposition but it is in
itself not necessarily a blessing to our present succession effort via
the ballot box. I should like to make two assertions here. Firstly,
Nigeria is not an Islamic country even though the country was smuggled
into the Organization of Islamic Countries. Secondly, Nigeria has
never (and can never be ruled by dictators), with extremist ideas.
Nigeria is not a theocracy.
Prior to the Arab revolution, many people have wondered aloud as to
why protest driven revolution has never happened here in Nigeria
considering the high index of poverty, sufferings and trying times
we have gone through as a country. In the last two months we have
witnessed the power of the people in these countries starting from
Tunisia with the fall of Ben Ali, down to Egypt sweeping away Mubarak
and now attempting to shut out Col. Gaddafi of Libya. It is important
to examine the structural differences between these governments and
Nigeria to comprehend the political dynamics that have advanced
revolution particularly in the Arab world at this time. This has
become necessary at a time when the opposition parties in Nigeria have
become more encouraged to seek electoral success through the uncharted
road of this strategy.
Let us look at what happened to Tunisia and Egypt. Both places
witnessed peaceful protests that turned violent when the government
tinkered with the idea of using force to disperse the crowds
paralyzing the economy. The crowd resisted with casualties and
international outcry. Then the country decided to limit media coverage
but it was impossible in this communication age and so they threw in
the towel.
For this to happen, there are basic requirements of the social
structure that must be present. First the country must have attained
nationhood. It means that there is established and definable
citizenship. Secondly there must be a political structure with a
definable succession in a constitution even if it is dictatorship. It
means that there is a considerable general education about what to
expect in the constitution. Thirdly, there is an existing census of
citizens, as well as immigrants and visitors. In other words the
nation must exist in reality and there is a preponderant value system
or national vision that drives the nation in one direction. It is when
these ideals are tampered with negatively that can bring about public
reaction of a unified devolution. With these basic features, a country
would have built lasting institutions to serve as concrete vehicles
towards serving its citizens. In other words it is the negation of
these institutions values and processes that the populace resents to
the point of protests. Not to say that there are no other situations
that may result in such spontaneous protests even outside nationhood
but it goes to explain the situation that serves as ready
mobilization for public gathering to express joy or anger. The irony
is that it is these things that remain undone in Nigeria’s quest for
nationhood that also makes mass consensus towards protests or
thanksgiving a mirage.
Let me explain further with the Nigerian illustration here. Since
independence in 1960, Nigeria has never run an unbroken constitutional
regime for more than a decade at a time. Forget the so called 1999
unbroken democracy. The only true constitution that took us until 1967
was thrown out or made redundant, followed by caricatures put together
to get us through each regime. Whenever the constitution failed as we
witness even today, the ruling body comes together and finds a
solution which tinkers it for that period awaiting another mishap
which most likely is pushed to another unfortunate regime to grapple
with. Look through history my friend and for once remove your
blinkers. Right from the regime of General Gowon, down through
General Abubakar, it was the same story of decreed survival enabling
successive governments to change programmes and projects to suit their
own contraception. What happened when the civilians took power in
1999? Owing to declining scholarship and growing impatience with
education, research and information gathering as well as
dissemination, the transitional government could not allow proper
period of preparation but like we witness today jumped into hurried
election and handover made possible by wholesale conversion of
military decrees into Acts of the National Assembly. So in essence the
greedy civilians who were mostly the returning military in civil
clothing only continued this ignoble tradition of coercion but tried
to deceive the international community into thinking that changes had
come. Look at it yourself. All the same culture of abandoned projects,
over invoicing, duplication of contract awards only go to tell you
there is no inherent continuity. Those of the modern political leaders
who try to complete abandoned projects like Governor Timipre Sylva of
Bayelsa State are often seen as having not performed when in the
actual sense they should be congratulated. Others who work wonders
have their pet projects abandoned on leaving office because the
incoming regime sees these projects as reminder of these people for
the populace, rather than to serve the people. There is a road that
went so bad in Port Harcourt that people began to wonder why it had
been overlooked .Later on someone suggested that the road was given a
politically threatening name and that any repairs would only add
political capital to the political opposition. I dismissed this view
for a while until news came that the bearer of this name had pledged
to work with the incumbent. Then as if by magic the road contract was
awarded and the contractor started to work day and night to rebuild
it. Maybe there is some strong correlation or the other. These are
just few solid illustration of the skewed system we run in Nigeria
today.
The implication of this analysis on political behavior is that
nothing concrete has changed from our erstwhile military experience;
if anything things have become worse. For example those few leaders
who reject modus operandi may not get things smooth going. We have
herewith established the inherent discontinuity in the system. We can
go ahead to map its negative effect in our society leading to the
abnormal reaction of the people to government. You know by law that
you cannot really blame someone not directly connected with a crime
except you want to be unfair. Your sense of justice will make you have
doubts strong enough to prevent positive action in form of protests to
redress the wrong. It is more so when the information environment is
heavily controlled or when quality education has declined as a result
of the accumulation of these measures over time.
So my friend it goes to instruct us that things may not work out the
way it is planned in this polity that defy every logic because of it
inherent structural deficiencies. These deficiencies disallow it to
properly transmit the national purpose if ever a presently
articulated. In the same vein it distorts the manifestation of
individual and group volition. In essence, what you want may not be
what you get. In the first place it is extremely tiresome to arrive at
a national consensus about anything. Without across the board
agreement of what is right and wrong how do you build up crowds
without paying the people for their time as is the case with the
rallies we hold today. Sometimes it is often blame on the dichotomy
existing between tribes and religion but it is not true. The religious
factor has been over hyped for political expediency by mediocre
leadership foisted on Nigerians because power abhors a vacuum. Ask
your selves the question, why was a protest more frequent and more
feasible during the first Republic when conditions were rather
paradisiacal compared to what it is today. During the time of Dr.
Azikiwe’s struggle with the British colonialists over abridgement of
the latter’s rights to expression, Nigerian often poured out to the
streets to protest in solidarity.
Also recall that Nigerians could protest Awolowo’s incarceration for
treasonable felony but they are seemingly indifferent to the bigger
atrocities that occur today. The point is made that without some
stability in constitution and without a national purpose or some
citizenship the group or individual volition is not fulfilled in the
expected form. To this end it has become more and more difficult to
discern what is right from what is wrong. It is also more difficult to
determine who is to blame for what when and how. The motivation to
protest in an environment where education is degraded, where
information flow is hindered, where there is no citizenship or where
there is still doubt as the number of Nigerians living or dead,
imprisoned or free or incarcerated/ detained ; sick or healthy. It is
only when we have put priority on what happens to the human element in
the context of nation building that we can begin to hope for a vote
that count, or for a protest that is purpose driven rather than a rent
a crowd gathering. It Is only then that Nigerians will be ready to die
for their country the same thing we so much admire and wish to emulate
from the Arab revolution playing out before our very eyes.
*Mr. Nworisara, a political analyst/ media consultant writes from Port
Harcourt, Nigeria.
Nigeria, the fact that mass protests succeeded in changing governments
in North Africa (Maghreb) does not mean that it will work here in
Nigeria. This increasing reference to the Arab revolution drawing
parallels with Nigeria has emboldened the opposition but it is in
itself not necessarily a blessing to our present succession effort via
the ballot box. I should like to make two assertions here. Firstly,
Nigeria is not an Islamic country even though the country was smuggled
into the Organization of Islamic Countries. Secondly, Nigeria has
never (and can never be ruled by dictators), with extremist ideas.
Nigeria is not a theocracy.
Prior to the Arab revolution, many people have wondered aloud as to
why protest driven revolution has never happened here in Nigeria
considering the high index of poverty, sufferings and trying times
we have gone through as a country. In the last two months we have
witnessed the power of the people in these countries starting from
Tunisia with the fall of Ben Ali, down to Egypt sweeping away Mubarak
and now attempting to shut out Col. Gaddafi of Libya. It is important
to examine the structural differences between these governments and
Nigeria to comprehend the political dynamics that have advanced
revolution particularly in the Arab world at this time. This has
become necessary at a time when the opposition parties in Nigeria have
become more encouraged to seek electoral success through the uncharted
road of this strategy.
Let us look at what happened to Tunisia and Egypt. Both places
witnessed peaceful protests that turned violent when the government
tinkered with the idea of using force to disperse the crowds
paralyzing the economy. The crowd resisted with casualties and
international outcry. Then the country decided to limit media coverage
but it was impossible in this communication age and so they threw in
the towel.
For this to happen, there are basic requirements of the social
structure that must be present. First the country must have attained
nationhood. It means that there is established and definable
citizenship. Secondly there must be a political structure with a
definable succession in a constitution even if it is dictatorship. It
means that there is a considerable general education about what to
expect in the constitution. Thirdly, there is an existing census of
citizens, as well as immigrants and visitors. In other words the
nation must exist in reality and there is a preponderant value system
or national vision that drives the nation in one direction. It is when
these ideals are tampered with negatively that can bring about public
reaction of a unified devolution. With these basic features, a country
would have built lasting institutions to serve as concrete vehicles
towards serving its citizens. In other words it is the negation of
these institutions values and processes that the populace resents to
the point of protests. Not to say that there are no other situations
that may result in such spontaneous protests even outside nationhood
but it goes to explain the situation that serves as ready
mobilization for public gathering to express joy or anger. The irony
is that it is these things that remain undone in Nigeria’s quest for
nationhood that also makes mass consensus towards protests or
thanksgiving a mirage.
Let me explain further with the Nigerian illustration here. Since
independence in 1960, Nigeria has never run an unbroken constitutional
regime for more than a decade at a time. Forget the so called 1999
unbroken democracy. The only true constitution that took us until 1967
was thrown out or made redundant, followed by caricatures put together
to get us through each regime. Whenever the constitution failed as we
witness even today, the ruling body comes together and finds a
solution which tinkers it for that period awaiting another mishap
which most likely is pushed to another unfortunate regime to grapple
with. Look through history my friend and for once remove your
blinkers. Right from the regime of General Gowon, down through
General Abubakar, it was the same story of decreed survival enabling
successive governments to change programmes and projects to suit their
own contraception. What happened when the civilians took power in
1999? Owing to declining scholarship and growing impatience with
education, research and information gathering as well as
dissemination, the transitional government could not allow proper
period of preparation but like we witness today jumped into hurried
election and handover made possible by wholesale conversion of
military decrees into Acts of the National Assembly. So in essence the
greedy civilians who were mostly the returning military in civil
clothing only continued this ignoble tradition of coercion but tried
to deceive the international community into thinking that changes had
come. Look at it yourself. All the same culture of abandoned projects,
over invoicing, duplication of contract awards only go to tell you
there is no inherent continuity. Those of the modern political leaders
who try to complete abandoned projects like Governor Timipre Sylva of
Bayelsa State are often seen as having not performed when in the
actual sense they should be congratulated. Others who work wonders
have their pet projects abandoned on leaving office because the
incoming regime sees these projects as reminder of these people for
the populace, rather than to serve the people. There is a road that
went so bad in Port Harcourt that people began to wonder why it had
been overlooked .Later on someone suggested that the road was given a
politically threatening name and that any repairs would only add
political capital to the political opposition. I dismissed this view
for a while until news came that the bearer of this name had pledged
to work with the incumbent. Then as if by magic the road contract was
awarded and the contractor started to work day and night to rebuild
it. Maybe there is some strong correlation or the other. These are
just few solid illustration of the skewed system we run in Nigeria
today.
The implication of this analysis on political behavior is that
nothing concrete has changed from our erstwhile military experience;
if anything things have become worse. For example those few leaders
who reject modus operandi may not get things smooth going. We have
herewith established the inherent discontinuity in the system. We can
go ahead to map its negative effect in our society leading to the
abnormal reaction of the people to government. You know by law that
you cannot really blame someone not directly connected with a crime
except you want to be unfair. Your sense of justice will make you have
doubts strong enough to prevent positive action in form of protests to
redress the wrong. It is more so when the information environment is
heavily controlled or when quality education has declined as a result
of the accumulation of these measures over time.
So my friend it goes to instruct us that things may not work out the
way it is planned in this polity that defy every logic because of it
inherent structural deficiencies. These deficiencies disallow it to
properly transmit the national purpose if ever a presently
articulated. In the same vein it distorts the manifestation of
individual and group volition. In essence, what you want may not be
what you get. In the first place it is extremely tiresome to arrive at
a national consensus about anything. Without across the board
agreement of what is right and wrong how do you build up crowds
without paying the people for their time as is the case with the
rallies we hold today. Sometimes it is often blame on the dichotomy
existing between tribes and religion but it is not true. The religious
factor has been over hyped for political expediency by mediocre
leadership foisted on Nigerians because power abhors a vacuum. Ask
your selves the question, why was a protest more frequent and more
feasible during the first Republic when conditions were rather
paradisiacal compared to what it is today. During the time of Dr.
Azikiwe’s struggle with the British colonialists over abridgement of
the latter’s rights to expression, Nigerian often poured out to the
streets to protest in solidarity.
Also recall that Nigerians could protest Awolowo’s incarceration for
treasonable felony but they are seemingly indifferent to the bigger
atrocities that occur today. The point is made that without some
stability in constitution and without a national purpose or some
citizenship the group or individual volition is not fulfilled in the
expected form. To this end it has become more and more difficult to
discern what is right from what is wrong. It is also more difficult to
determine who is to blame for what when and how. The motivation to
protest in an environment where education is degraded, where
information flow is hindered, where there is no citizenship or where
there is still doubt as the number of Nigerians living or dead,
imprisoned or free or incarcerated/ detained ; sick or healthy. It is
only when we have put priority on what happens to the human element in
the context of nation building that we can begin to hope for a vote
that count, or for a protest that is purpose driven rather than a rent
a crowd gathering. It Is only then that Nigerians will be ready to die
for their country the same thing we so much admire and wish to emulate
from the Arab revolution playing out before our very eyes.
*Mr. Nworisara, a political analyst/ media consultant writes from Port
Harcourt, Nigeria.
Jonathan will be
easy to dismantle
--Bakare
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Posted: Mar 1, 2011
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