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The Republic of South Sudan became the world’s newest nation on July 9, 2011,
when it peacefully seceded from the mother nation of Republic of Sudan following a
January 2011 referendum. What was not peaceful though was the painful period of
gestation which the people of South Sudan had gone through before the birth of their
separate homeland. It was a twenty-year civil war in which an Islamist government in
Khartoum starved some five million Christians and followers of traditional African
religion. This cruel oppression led the South Sudanese to vote overwhelmingly to
break away. The political independence was the right soothing balm for the people
of South Sudan, it was well deserved.
Our world is always adding significant events to human history. Just to mention a
few recent global events; citizens from countries like Portugal, Italy, Spain and
Greece recently stormed the streets to protest their government’s austerity program.
London was engulfed with riots and looting while Somalia faced severe drought,
famine and abject poverty. In Israel, it was a protest on high costs of living. We just
had the Arab Spring of populist uprisings against dictatorship governments across
North Africa and Middle East, leaving a residue of protracted battles between Col.
Muammar Gaddafi and the rebels in Libya, President Bashar Assad and his people
in Syria and President Ali Abdullah Saleh and the Islamists in Yemen. Last week, for
the first time in history, the U.S. had its credit rating downgraded by Standard & Poor’
s (S&P) from AAA to AA+, what I call a credit downgrade from superpower to super
stupor!
Every day, we wake up in this world with more troubles and uncertainties. No one
knows what is coming next; could it be the Sudan Effect? An effect that outlays a split
of diametrically opposed people of a nation along the lines of ethnicity, religion and
natural resources, in order to harness the complexity for the greater good, by
consensus for its entire people. It is a paradigm of how a country leverages its
complex differences, the various ways its people see problems and the adaptive
tools the people could use to solve the problems. Today, many countries in Africa
share a lot of affinities with the socio-economic, geo-political and ethno-religious
composition of the “old Sudan”.
As it is widely known, the rift that ran most deeply from North to South in Sudan could
be adduced to religion. The imposition of Shari’ah law on the non-Muslim South
Sudan where most people follow traditional beliefs and Christianity was one of the
primary reasons for the long civil war and the eventual split. Before the split, the
North of Sudan had promised an agenda to establish Islamic laws on the remaining
parts of Sudan should the South secede after the referendum. To support this
agenda, the President, Omar al-Bashir gave a statement in December 2010 that “the
constitution would then be changed, making Islam the only religion, Shari’ah the
only law and Arabic the only official language”.
Could the Sudan Effect lead to a revival of nationalism or tribalism in many parts of
the world especially in Africa? I believe so and here is why.
Like in the old Sudan, the history of many Sub-Sahara African countries in the last 50
years is that many governments in Africa are always in constant fight against their
own people. The citizenry don’t trust their government leadership and the leadership
do not care much for the citizenry. If anyone thinks the leadership care so much,
then, why is it that in many African nations, if you turned the water tap knob, there
would be no water running and if you turned on the electric switch, there would be no
light? Contracts awarded to provide uninterrupted supply of electricity turned out to
be contracts that provided more darkness. Some nations have refineries yet they still
import refined gasoline. The pictures and videos of poor African children showing
visible traces of rib bones in their bodies with flies flying over their faces or phlegm
running down their noses are all over the world as tools to raise funds to help
“defeat child malnutrition & diseases” despite the fact that every African country at
least, has a ministry of Health, or Youth or maybe Women Affairs - all with fat
budgets. What a shame!
Another story of many African countries has always been about “authority stealing”
and corruption galore (no need to talk about it in this article). What about military
interventions in African governments? News of military coups was a normal news
diet for everyday African folks. When I was living in Africa, I personally listened to
about 10 coups and counter-coups announcements - at least five in my own country.
In the case of Sudan, I was listening to BBC in 1989, when the news of military coup
in Sudan broke and the then Brigadier Omar Bashir rode to power in a bloodless
military coup that ousted the government of Prime Minister Sadiq Al-Mahdi,
promising better life for the Sudanese. Unfortunately what the Sudanese got was
civil war, political instability, humanitarian crises, ethnic cleansing, religious
intolerance, and atrocious rape of women. There was genocide in Dafur by the
Janjaweed and conflicts in oil-rich Abyei.
Furthermore, inflation is currently blowing across African continent; prices of foods
and scarce gasoline are through the roof. Many African nations are dependent on
Western assistance for survival yet many of its citizens still live in poverty. There is
high youth unemployment rate, civil strife, economic hardships, and insecurity. In
times of danger in some African countries, if you called the firefighters, the
firefighters would not have functional fire trucks and when they do, they might not
have enough water to extinguish the fire. If you called the police, they might not have
enough gasoline in their vehicles to race to crime scenes but amazingly, when an
African government wants to stop its people’s legitimate anti-government protests,
military tanks are rolled out with a speed of light! Again, another familiar African story!
The Sudan Effect has broken the jinx of what many African leaders and possibly
some African citizens are afraid of – the fear to institute a binding referendum that
allows the people to cast a direct vote to decide if the people of a country should
remain united (in hopelessness?) or separate amicably. Of course, answer to a
referendum question is either yes or no. There is no mumbling like: “em…em…em”
- an interjection you could hear from many African leaders who are faltering to show
leadership on national issues.
If a referendum could agreeably happen in Sudan, why could it not reasonably
happen in other parts of Africa for the greater good of the people who want to be free
from the grips of central government’s oppression and neglect? Please, don’t get
me wrong, this writer is not calling for secession in any country. However, when all of
the above factors are combined, even with other factors that are ephemeral, the
disintegration of old Sudan may ignite a re-awakening of long-suppressed
nationalist and anti-government feelings that currently exist in many African
countries.
Whether a country is democratic or not, strong agitations for greater independence
from central government’s rule could still grow louder for self-determination. In fact,
many of the so called democratic nations in Africa are amalgams of people of
diverse cultural make up, these people just found themselves unintentionally
bonded together in a geographical setting called a “country” – some by colonial
permutations, some by conquests, some by Providence and of course, some by
ignorance. These nations are very tribal and still institutionally underdeveloped, they
are actually primed for a continued division rather than unified, functioning
democracy.
In any case, the Sudan Effect may not be a strange effect to African citizens, both at
home and in diaspora because many African citizens would probably value the
vision of national consciousness; that unless the people of a nation would sincerely
come together in unity and live peacefully as one, a time would come, considering
certain indicators, when the idea of “one nation” may not be sustainable, after all.
Therefore, regardless of the CIA predictions about “break-apart possibilities” of
some African countries, the Sudan Effect may be lurking in your country. The
indicators are in the air for all to discern. There is no need to listen to political false
prophets.
Do you want to know about the indicators? Please find out the basic indicators
identified in part 2 of this article.
Nester Komolafe is a Chicago-based freelance commentator and analyst on global
affairs.
Email: knesterio@yahoo.com
Released: August 13, 2011
when it peacefully seceded from the mother nation of Republic of Sudan following a
January 2011 referendum. What was not peaceful though was the painful period of
gestation which the people of South Sudan had gone through before the birth of their
separate homeland. It was a twenty-year civil war in which an Islamist government in
Khartoum starved some five million Christians and followers of traditional African
religion. This cruel oppression led the South Sudanese to vote overwhelmingly to
break away. The political independence was the right soothing balm for the people
of South Sudan, it was well deserved.
Our world is always adding significant events to human history. Just to mention a
few recent global events; citizens from countries like Portugal, Italy, Spain and
Greece recently stormed the streets to protest their government’s austerity program.
London was engulfed with riots and looting while Somalia faced severe drought,
famine and abject poverty. In Israel, it was a protest on high costs of living. We just
had the Arab Spring of populist uprisings against dictatorship governments across
North Africa and Middle East, leaving a residue of protracted battles between Col.
Muammar Gaddafi and the rebels in Libya, President Bashar Assad and his people
in Syria and President Ali Abdullah Saleh and the Islamists in Yemen. Last week, for
the first time in history, the U.S. had its credit rating downgraded by Standard & Poor’
s (S&P) from AAA to AA+, what I call a credit downgrade from superpower to super
stupor!
Every day, we wake up in this world with more troubles and uncertainties. No one
knows what is coming next; could it be the Sudan Effect? An effect that outlays a split
of diametrically opposed people of a nation along the lines of ethnicity, religion and
natural resources, in order to harness the complexity for the greater good, by
consensus for its entire people. It is a paradigm of how a country leverages its
complex differences, the various ways its people see problems and the adaptive
tools the people could use to solve the problems. Today, many countries in Africa
share a lot of affinities with the socio-economic, geo-political and ethno-religious
composition of the “old Sudan”.
As it is widely known, the rift that ran most deeply from North to South in Sudan could
be adduced to religion. The imposition of Shari’ah law on the non-Muslim South
Sudan where most people follow traditional beliefs and Christianity was one of the
primary reasons for the long civil war and the eventual split. Before the split, the
North of Sudan had promised an agenda to establish Islamic laws on the remaining
parts of Sudan should the South secede after the referendum. To support this
agenda, the President, Omar al-Bashir gave a statement in December 2010 that “the
constitution would then be changed, making Islam the only religion, Shari’ah the
only law and Arabic the only official language”.
Could the Sudan Effect lead to a revival of nationalism or tribalism in many parts of
the world especially in Africa? I believe so and here is why.
Like in the old Sudan, the history of many Sub-Sahara African countries in the last 50
years is that many governments in Africa are always in constant fight against their
own people. The citizenry don’t trust their government leadership and the leadership
do not care much for the citizenry. If anyone thinks the leadership care so much,
then, why is it that in many African nations, if you turned the water tap knob, there
would be no water running and if you turned on the electric switch, there would be no
light? Contracts awarded to provide uninterrupted supply of electricity turned out to
be contracts that provided more darkness. Some nations have refineries yet they still
import refined gasoline. The pictures and videos of poor African children showing
visible traces of rib bones in their bodies with flies flying over their faces or phlegm
running down their noses are all over the world as tools to raise funds to help
“defeat child malnutrition & diseases” despite the fact that every African country at
least, has a ministry of Health, or Youth or maybe Women Affairs - all with fat
budgets. What a shame!
Another story of many African countries has always been about “authority stealing”
and corruption galore (no need to talk about it in this article). What about military
interventions in African governments? News of military coups was a normal news
diet for everyday African folks. When I was living in Africa, I personally listened to
about 10 coups and counter-coups announcements - at least five in my own country.
In the case of Sudan, I was listening to BBC in 1989, when the news of military coup
in Sudan broke and the then Brigadier Omar Bashir rode to power in a bloodless
military coup that ousted the government of Prime Minister Sadiq Al-Mahdi,
promising better life for the Sudanese. Unfortunately what the Sudanese got was
civil war, political instability, humanitarian crises, ethnic cleansing, religious
intolerance, and atrocious rape of women. There was genocide in Dafur by the
Janjaweed and conflicts in oil-rich Abyei.
Furthermore, inflation is currently blowing across African continent; prices of foods
and scarce gasoline are through the roof. Many African nations are dependent on
Western assistance for survival yet many of its citizens still live in poverty. There is
high youth unemployment rate, civil strife, economic hardships, and insecurity. In
times of danger in some African countries, if you called the firefighters, the
firefighters would not have functional fire trucks and when they do, they might not
have enough water to extinguish the fire. If you called the police, they might not have
enough gasoline in their vehicles to race to crime scenes but amazingly, when an
African government wants to stop its people’s legitimate anti-government protests,
military tanks are rolled out with a speed of light! Again, another familiar African story!
The Sudan Effect has broken the jinx of what many African leaders and possibly
some African citizens are afraid of – the fear to institute a binding referendum that
allows the people to cast a direct vote to decide if the people of a country should
remain united (in hopelessness?) or separate amicably. Of course, answer to a
referendum question is either yes or no. There is no mumbling like: “em…em…em”
- an interjection you could hear from many African leaders who are faltering to show
leadership on national issues.
If a referendum could agreeably happen in Sudan, why could it not reasonably
happen in other parts of Africa for the greater good of the people who want to be free
from the grips of central government’s oppression and neglect? Please, don’t get
me wrong, this writer is not calling for secession in any country. However, when all of
the above factors are combined, even with other factors that are ephemeral, the
disintegration of old Sudan may ignite a re-awakening of long-suppressed
nationalist and anti-government feelings that currently exist in many African
countries.
Whether a country is democratic or not, strong agitations for greater independence
from central government’s rule could still grow louder for self-determination. In fact,
many of the so called democratic nations in Africa are amalgams of people of
diverse cultural make up, these people just found themselves unintentionally
bonded together in a geographical setting called a “country” – some by colonial
permutations, some by conquests, some by Providence and of course, some by
ignorance. These nations are very tribal and still institutionally underdeveloped, they
are actually primed for a continued division rather than unified, functioning
democracy.
In any case, the Sudan Effect may not be a strange effect to African citizens, both at
home and in diaspora because many African citizens would probably value the
vision of national consciousness; that unless the people of a nation would sincerely
come together in unity and live peacefully as one, a time would come, considering
certain indicators, when the idea of “one nation” may not be sustainable, after all.
Therefore, regardless of the CIA predictions about “break-apart possibilities” of
some African countries, the Sudan Effect may be lurking in your country. The
indicators are in the air for all to discern. There is no need to listen to political false
prophets.
Do you want to know about the indicators? Please find out the basic indicators
identified in part 2 of this article.
Nester Komolafe is a Chicago-based freelance commentator and analyst on global
affairs.
Email: knesterio@yahoo.com
Released: August 13, 2011
By Nester Komolafe
African Examiner, Monday, September 05, 2011
African Examiner, Monday, September 05, 2011
The Sudan Effect: How to know if your country is
at risk - Part 1 of 2
at risk - Part 1 of 2
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