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The humid Nairobi weather is tension soaked. The uncertainty is palpable.
Any moment from now, the International Criminal Court (ICC) based in
Hague will rule on whether six prominent Kenyan politicians and a radio
journalist have a case to answer on charges relating to their alleged role
during the 2007 post election violence that engulfed the country. The
outcome of that ruling has a potential of re-defining political trajectories in
the next Presidential elections. Already the aftermath of the initial
investigation carried out by outgoing Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo,
has cracked the camp of the incumbent Prime Minister, and frontline
Presidential hopeful, Raila Amollo Odinga and may put his anticipated
landslide victory in jeopardy.
Among the high profile suspects include two of those who supported the
Prime Minister in the 2007 elections. Henry Kosgey and William Ruto
were Chairman and Deputy Leader respectively of the party on which Raila
ran for Presidency in 2007, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). MP
Ruto, who was also Minister for Agriculture and then higher Education,
was accused of instigating some of the killings in the Rift Valley Province,
by calling for mass demonstrations, after the election results were
announced in favour of incumbent President Kibaki. An accusation he has
bluntly denied. Mr. Ruto himself was said to have expressed shock that
PM Odinga did little to defend him as whatever happened in 2007 was in
solidarity to him(Odinga) and in response to alleged rigging that robbed
him of Presidency. It will be recalled that Mr. Ruto used his influence in
Rift Valley province to galvanize support for Mr. Odinga and now feels
strongly that he must not be abandoned to ‘pay’ for his ’sins’ alone.
However, in response to PM Odinga alleged betrayal, Mr. Ruto is believed
to have withdrawn his support for the Prime Minister and is now vying for
the Presidency under a new party, the United Republican Party (URP).
Another person on the list of suspects is the Deputy Prime Minister and
Minister of Finance, Uhuru Kenyata. Amiable and financially endowed,
Uhuru is the son of Kenya’s first President, Jomo Kenyatta and firmly
backed incumbent President Mwai Kibaki in the 2007 elections. Many
observers believe that he is being groomed as Kibaki’s possible
successor. He was accused of using his influence and wealth to grant
members of Mungiki(a Kikuyu ethnic militia) access and finance to
perpetrate retaliatory killings in the Rift Valley during the 2007 violence.
An allegation, he also flatly denies.
With the clock ticking to the ICC judgment, there are a lot of possibilities.
Most importantly, incumbent Prime Minister who is seen by many as a
President-in-waiting may be fighting a political battle of his life. His former
political ally William Ruto has now parted ways with him and even publicly
declared that ‘he does not know who will be the President of Kenya, but it
will not be PM Raila Odinga’. It is believed that Mr. Ruto is relying on his
political structures in the Rift Valley to work against Mr. Odinga. Those
were the same structures which he (Ruto) used to support Mr. Odinga and
which the Prime Minister was naturally relying upon before the
disagreement between them.
Typical of many post colonial African countries, a fierce inter ethnic
competition is expected again in 2012 elections among 42 ethnic groups
in Kenya. The 2007 post electoral violence re-awakened tribal sensibilities
and rekindled traditional ethnic rivalries and alliances. For instance the
finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta will be the man to beat among Kikuyus
his ethnic homestead which constitutes about 20 percent of the country’s
population. PM Raila Odinga will naturally sweep the votes among the
Luos, his home stead. With the new development, Mr. Ruto will also be
expected to win at least among the Kalenjins who constitute about 12
percent of the population. Incumbent Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka
will win among his Kamba tribe of about eleven percent. This anticipated
fragmentation of votes along clear ethnic cleavages may become the
political albatross of PM Odinga as it may be difficult for him or any other
Presidential candidate to garner the 51 percent majority votes as required
by the Kenyan constitution.
The perceived political game changer at the moment is the Meru ethnic
group, which constitutes about five percent of the population. Political
pundits believe that PM Odinga is showing discernible political
apprehension and is therefore campaigning vigorously across the country
especially among the Merus. The permutation is to use these votes to
compensate for his anticipated loss in the Rift Valley province. There are
speculations alluding to an unwritten grand strategy among other
candidates to frustrate Raila Odinga from winning the constitutional 51
percent majority during the first round of voting and then uniting
themselves to support one candidate to defeat the Prime Minister at the
run off. As it stands now, regardless of the outcome of the ICC ruling in
Hague and despite the popularity he enjoys, it is not safe to say Hakuna
Matata for PM Odinga’s Presidential aspiration.
Uche Igwe is a governance expert. He wrote in via ucheigwe@gmail.com
Any moment from now, the International Criminal Court (ICC) based in
Hague will rule on whether six prominent Kenyan politicians and a radio
journalist have a case to answer on charges relating to their alleged role
during the 2007 post election violence that engulfed the country. The
outcome of that ruling has a potential of re-defining political trajectories in
the next Presidential elections. Already the aftermath of the initial
investigation carried out by outgoing Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo,
has cracked the camp of the incumbent Prime Minister, and frontline
Presidential hopeful, Raila Amollo Odinga and may put his anticipated
landslide victory in jeopardy.
Among the high profile suspects include two of those who supported the
Prime Minister in the 2007 elections. Henry Kosgey and William Ruto
were Chairman and Deputy Leader respectively of the party on which Raila
ran for Presidency in 2007, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). MP
Ruto, who was also Minister for Agriculture and then higher Education,
was accused of instigating some of the killings in the Rift Valley Province,
by calling for mass demonstrations, after the election results were
announced in favour of incumbent President Kibaki. An accusation he has
bluntly denied. Mr. Ruto himself was said to have expressed shock that
PM Odinga did little to defend him as whatever happened in 2007 was in
solidarity to him(Odinga) and in response to alleged rigging that robbed
him of Presidency. It will be recalled that Mr. Ruto used his influence in
Rift Valley province to galvanize support for Mr. Odinga and now feels
strongly that he must not be abandoned to ‘pay’ for his ’sins’ alone.
However, in response to PM Odinga alleged betrayal, Mr. Ruto is believed
to have withdrawn his support for the Prime Minister and is now vying for
the Presidency under a new party, the United Republican Party (URP).
Another person on the list of suspects is the Deputy Prime Minister and
Minister of Finance, Uhuru Kenyata. Amiable and financially endowed,
Uhuru is the son of Kenya’s first President, Jomo Kenyatta and firmly
backed incumbent President Mwai Kibaki in the 2007 elections. Many
observers believe that he is being groomed as Kibaki’s possible
successor. He was accused of using his influence and wealth to grant
members of Mungiki(a Kikuyu ethnic militia) access and finance to
perpetrate retaliatory killings in the Rift Valley during the 2007 violence.
An allegation, he also flatly denies.
With the clock ticking to the ICC judgment, there are a lot of possibilities.
Most importantly, incumbent Prime Minister who is seen by many as a
President-in-waiting may be fighting a political battle of his life. His former
political ally William Ruto has now parted ways with him and even publicly
declared that ‘he does not know who will be the President of Kenya, but it
will not be PM Raila Odinga’. It is believed that Mr. Ruto is relying on his
political structures in the Rift Valley to work against Mr. Odinga. Those
were the same structures which he (Ruto) used to support Mr. Odinga and
which the Prime Minister was naturally relying upon before the
disagreement between them.
Typical of many post colonial African countries, a fierce inter ethnic
competition is expected again in 2012 elections among 42 ethnic groups
in Kenya. The 2007 post electoral violence re-awakened tribal sensibilities
and rekindled traditional ethnic rivalries and alliances. For instance the
finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta will be the man to beat among Kikuyus
his ethnic homestead which constitutes about 20 percent of the country’s
population. PM Raila Odinga will naturally sweep the votes among the
Luos, his home stead. With the new development, Mr. Ruto will also be
expected to win at least among the Kalenjins who constitute about 12
percent of the population. Incumbent Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka
will win among his Kamba tribe of about eleven percent. This anticipated
fragmentation of votes along clear ethnic cleavages may become the
political albatross of PM Odinga as it may be difficult for him or any other
Presidential candidate to garner the 51 percent majority votes as required
by the Kenyan constitution.
The perceived political game changer at the moment is the Meru ethnic
group, which constitutes about five percent of the population. Political
pundits believe that PM Odinga is showing discernible political
apprehension and is therefore campaigning vigorously across the country
especially among the Merus. The permutation is to use these votes to
compensate for his anticipated loss in the Rift Valley province. There are
speculations alluding to an unwritten grand strategy among other
candidates to frustrate Raila Odinga from winning the constitutional 51
percent majority during the first round of voting and then uniting
themselves to support one candidate to defeat the Prime Minister at the
run off. As it stands now, regardless of the outcome of the ICC ruling in
Hague and despite the popularity he enjoys, it is not safe to say Hakuna
Matata for PM Odinga’s Presidential aspiration.
Uche Igwe is a governance expert. He wrote in via ucheigwe@gmail.com
Kenya’s Elections and Odinga’s
Dilemma
Dilemma
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Examiner.com. Please avoid abusive, vulgar, racist or rude words. Our
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